Iraq Update

Recently Lt. Gen. Ray Odierno, the 2nd ranking US commander in Iraq was quoted by CNN as saying that the troop surge has allowed many insurgent safe havens to be eliminated and signs of normality are returning. The general was also cited as say that troops have switched to an oversight role in some areas and the trend will continue in the coming months. The question on my mind is currently, Is this a stable trend? The answer to this question I believe will play a large part in determining the 2008 elections. If this trend is stable and we see continued success in Iraq it will be a huge boost to Republicans, if the opposite is true and the current success changes to failure it would mean a boost to the Democrats. Since President Bush is currently in control of the war one may think that the current strategies will lead to continued success and the boost will go to the Republicans. However there is a catch, as Marcus Tullius Cicero once said “The sinews of war are infinite money”. If success in Iraq continues the Democrats have only one hope, and that is to use their control of Congress to cut war funding. If they time such cuts in funding well enough they may be able to reverse success in Iraq around the time of elections and regain their boost. While it is interesting to hypothesize about who will get the checkmate in this game of political chess, we are currently looking 10 moves away and what happens between now and then is anyone’s guess.